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Florida became the nation鈥檚 biggest K鈥�12 marketplace on Monday, when Gov. Ron DeSantis signed legislation that offers school vouchers and education savings accounts to every family in the state.

The new law, HB 1, effectively universalizes a multi-pronged system of private school choice that has to include vouchers, ESAs and tax credit scholarships. Over 80,000 students currently participate in , the Family Empowerment Scholarship, receiving an average annual voucher of roughly $7,600 to defray the cost of private school tuition.

HB 1 will extend eligibility to the rest of the students statewide, including 2.9 million currently attending public schools. 鈥� and, by far, the largest 鈥� jurisdiction to offer universal school choice, following similar moves in West Virginia, Arizona, Utah, Iowa and Arkansas. By including a provision on part-time public school enrollment, the shift in policy could massively shift the way education services are delivered in the nation鈥檚 third-most-populous state.

At a press conference, DeSantis said the reforms represent “the largest expansion of education choice not only in the history of this state, but in the history of these United States鈥� 鈥� a claim echoed by conservative activist Corey DeAngelis, who wrote in that Florida had 鈥渞eclaimed the school choice crown鈥� by massively increasing the number of American children who enjoy access to universal school choice.

The policy will take effect on July 1. At the household level, for a voucher (projected to be worth about $8,700, based on average per-student allotment from districts) through one of Florida鈥檚 two scholarship funding organizations. Participating schools must demonstrate fiscal solvency with state authorities, but can maintain discretion in selecting individual students and setting enrollment figures; in other words, any family can receive vouchers but won鈥檛 be guaranteed to place students in the school of their choice.

But how will the policy affect K鈥�12 education statewide, as parents race to fill out applications and school districts brace for the financial impact? According to Emory University economics professor Krzysztof Karbownik, 鈥渋t鈥檚 really hard to predict鈥� how HB 1 will affect Florida education.

“We just don’t know, from a U.S. perspective, because nobody has tried this,鈥� he said.

Along with several other economists, Karbownik co-authored of the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship, which awarded scholarships to over 108,000 students in the 2017鈥�18 school year at a cost of $640 million. The paper focused exclusively on the effects of the initiative on nearby public schools, ultimately identifying a strongly positive impact from competition with private schools. Standardized test scores went up while suspensions and absenteeism rates declined, and the benefits were more pronounced for lower-income students.

The findings suggested that further scaling-up of Florida鈥檚 voucher regime could yield still-greater results.

But there are limits to what that study, and much of the existing literature on private school choice, can tell us about the overhauls currently occurring across red states like Florida. The only such expansions that are of comparable size have played out across whole countries such as and , Karbownik said 鈥� and the differences in demographics, development, and poverty between those places and any American state make comparisons inherently difficult. 

Asked to consider the best-case scenario for Florida鈥檚 newly transformed K鈥�12 ecosystem, Karbownik said that he could foresee the possibility that schools and families 鈥渓everage the power of competition鈥� to provide better options for kids. 

Under this scenario, he said, 鈥渢hose students that chose to utilize the voucher would be the students for whom private schools would indeed be a better option than a traditional public school. And on top of that, those who choose to remain in traditional public schools would benefit from improvement in management and peer quality and smaller class sizes through the competitive effects.” 

But several analyses of voucher systems have provided good reason for skepticism. Karbownik also co-authored a previous study of Ohio鈥檚 EdChoice Scholarship Program, which extends targeted vouchers to children attending the lowest-performing schools in the state. , issued in 2016 by the choice-friendly Thomas B. Fordham Institute, found that 鈥� even as private school competition 鈥渕odestly improved鈥� the achievement of public school students who didn鈥檛 use vouchers 鈥� voucher recipients themselves fared significantly worse than comparable public school students; those effects lasted for years, suggesting that the academic reversals weren鈥檛 simply related to the complications of switching schools.

Already, voucher foes have pointed to of implementing universal school choice. One of HB 1鈥檚 sponsors quoted a figure of just over $200 million during legislative negotiations, but an evaluation by the independent Florida Policy Institute put the total at over $1 billion. Until families begin to apply for vouchers 鈥� including some who currently pay full freight for access to their children鈥檚 private schools, but would gladly accept a subsidy 鈥� the bottom line is undetermined.

Another potential problem is that of surging demand for private school attendance. About 2,000 private K鈥�12 schools currently participate in Florida鈥檚 voucher system, and it鈥檚 unknown how many have spare capacity to absorb newly eligible families beginning next school year. Some new entrants could materialize in the coming years to pursue state voucher money, Karbownik suggested, potentially creating 鈥渁 whole market for relatively low-quality private schools鈥� that operate substantially outside the regulations applying to traditional public schools.

To forestall that possibility, he said, the state should adopt measures that would clearly rate the quality of private schools so that families know exactly what they鈥檙e buying with the money they receive under HB 1. 

鈥淚’m not saying we need to over-regulate everything and make the curricula exactly the same,鈥� Karbownik concluded. 鈥淏ut we should at least make sure that the objective over which they compete 鈥� which, from the perspective of legislators, is to deliver the best education to the children of Florida 鈥� is the same for private schools as compared to public schools.鈥�

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