Enrollment in California K-12 schools, and in schools across the country, is declining rapidly as birth rates drop and immigration rates fall. This school year, California had the largest decline in enrollment rates since 2021-22, after schools returned from the pandemic.

Enrollment in public schools declined by 1.3%, or by 74,961 students, according to data released Thursday by the California Department of Education. State public school enrollment is now at 5.7 million students.

The biggest declines were in private schools, with a 6.6% drop in enrollment, and home schools, with a 3.7% decline, according to state officials. Traditional public school enrollment dropped 1.4% and charter public school enrollment fell by 0.3%.

State officials attribute the enrollment dip to an ongoing decline in birth rates and immigration losses.

The California Department of Finance, which makes demographic projections for the state, estimated last October that enrollment would decline by only 10,000 students, or about 0.2%.

Districts are shoring up enrollment losses with cuts

California funds schools based on average daily attendance. The new enrollment figures may not surprise district leaders, who have the staff to track births, housing projections and other factors, but smaller districts may have to redo attendance-based revenue projections for the coming years, said Kenneth Kapphahn, principal fiscal analyst for the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office. 

The impact on schools is real and immediate, said Kindra Britt, communications director for California County Superintendents. 

“That translates directly into budget deficits, staff layoffs, program cuts, and in some cases, school closures,” Britt said.

The continuing trend of declining enrollment is a new reality the state must adapt to, said Troy Flint, chief information officer for the California School Boards Association. Even when enrollment declines, costs to operate the school remain the same, he said. 

The decline in enrollment statewide will not affect overall TK-12 state funding, which will continue to be about 40% of the state’s general fund, and is projected to rise significantly in 2025-26.

Declining enrollment is a national problem

Nationwide K-12 school enrollment has declined by 2.3% or 1.18 million students over the past five years, according to the . National projections predict that the country will lose another 2.7 million students by 2031.

All 39 states that released enrollment data for this school year have experienced a decline, said Elizabeth Sanders, director of communications and public relations for the CDE. About half of the states had larger enrollment losses than California.

Half the enrollment loss in the state is in L.A. County

Los Angeles County lost 32,953 students, more than half from the Los Angeles Unified School District. The 2.6% decline in county enrollment accounted for 43% of the state’s loss.  

The number of LAUSD has dropped over the past two years after reaching a peak of 5% of the student population in 2023-24. Newcomer students are generally defined as students with limited English proficiency who have attended a U.S. school for three years or less.

LAUSD Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, who is on administrative leave, has blamed the decline on “a climate of fear and instability created by the ongoing immigration crackdowns,” according to the  

Declining enrollment was one of the main reasons for the budget deficits that led Los Angeles Unified to issue 3,200 layoff notices in February, according to district officials. The layoffs are expected to actually result in 650 job losses.

The number of Hispanic students has dropped

Hispanic students, who make up 56% of California’s student population, had the biggest loss in student enrollment, but not the largest percentage. The number of Hispanic students dropped by 48,064 or 1.48%, while the number of white students dropped by 31,076, or 2.68%.

The number of English learners also dropped by 8.2%, although the decline could be attributed, in part, to students being reclassified as proficient in English.

“We surmise that a portion of the enrollment loss is driven by current immigration enforcement activities; how long and to what extent that will continue is the crux of that question,” said H.D. Palmer, deputy director of external affairs for the California Department of Finance.

Immigrant families have been afraid to send their students to school, said Martha Hernandez, executive director of  a coalition of 40 organizations focused on the educational success of English learners.

School staff have tried to assure families that it is safe for their children to go to school, but some families have opted to self-deport or simply leave the state or region for a safer place, she said. 

Immigration losses are likely to have continued to have an impact on school enrollment. Immigration to the state declined from 312,761 to 109,278 between 2024 and 2025, according to the .

Charter school skews Sacramento numbers

Sacramento County had a 9,744 drop in enrollment in its schools overall, a decline of 3.8%; while Orange County had 7,518, Santa Clara 4,198, San Diego 4,190, San Bernardino 2,543 and Ventura County 2,345 fewer students than last year.

Despite Sacramento’s ranking as the county with the second-largest loss in enrollment, two of its districts were listed as having some of the highest enrollment gains. Elk Grove Unified grew by 1,097 students, or 1.7% — making it the district with the largest enrollment gain in the state. Folsom Cordova Unified gained 537 students, an increase of 2.5%. 

The disparity in Sacramento County seems to be the result of a large enrollment dip in Twin Rivers Unified, which lost 12,300 students the same year  and Technical Schools laid off teachers and staff following a state audit that found it did not have enough teachers with the proper credentials.  

Regions with lower costs grew

The counties with the largest gains in enrollment this year are in Northern California and the Central Valley.

“There are counties and regions in California where there’s actually a sharp increase in school enrollment, and we’re seeing a direct correlation there between economies that are livable for families and where students are enrolling in school,” Sanders said. “And then of the students who remain, those families are moving to areas that are more affordable for them to live.”

The seven counties with the largest increases in enrollment are San Joaquin County, 842; Placer County, 841; Sutter County, 802; Butte County, 200; San Benito County, 146; Glenn County, 82; and Yuba County, 58.

More kids are attending transitional kindergarten

The drop in enrollment was offset somewhat by a 20.1% increase in students attending transitional kindergarten, after the state fully implemented enrollment for all 4-year-old students this school year. An additional 36,000 children were enrolled in transitional kindergarten this year, bringing the total to 213,313.

There was a 16% increase in the percentage of socioeconomically disadvantaged families that enrolled their children in the state’s transitional kindergarten program. There were also almost 20% more students with disabilities and almost 11% more homeless students in transitional kindergarten this year than last year.

There were fewer English learners listed in transitional kindergarten as a result of , which exempted transitional kindergarten students from taking the English Language Proficiency Assessment for California (ELPAC).

EdSource reporter Betty Márquez Rosales contributed to this report.

Kindergarten counts continue to dwindle in many states — evidence of falling birth rates and an ever-growing array of options luring parents away from traditional public schools. Experts fear those trends, as well as a and the looming cut-off of federal relief funds, amount to a perfect storm for U.S. education.

The $190 billion in pandemic aid that was provided to schools allowed many districts to temporarily salve the loss of funds tied to falling enrollment and to staff and programs. Those funds dry up in 17 months. As budget deficits grow and housing costs drive families out of urban areas, education leaders are staring down a host of unpalatable options, from half-empty buildings to staff.

“I’m not a pro-school closure guy. That’s the worst part of school reform,” said Brian Eschbacher, an enrollment consultant and a former Denver Public Schools official. “But if anyone was holding out hope for a bounce back, we have put that to rest.”

The Parkrose School District, outside Portland, Oregon, is one of many grappling with a budget shortfall.

“We have some decisions to make in the next few months,” said Sonja McKenzie, a board member in the district, where enrollment has fallen 12% since 2018. Now leaders might have to slash positions for special education assistants. Talk of layoffs is also surfacing in , and .

McKenzie went door-to-door last fall asking voters to approve a tax levy to fund 22 positions, reminding them that the district, where nearly 30% of students are Hispanic, heeded their call to hire bilingual family liaisons. Voters .

Some families, she said, have been “priced out” of the area, heading east to Gresham or across the Columbia River to Vancouver, Washington, where they can find more affordable housing. Those areas, McKenzie said, have “benefited from our challenges.” 

Desperation and aspiration

����Ӱ��’s enrollment analysis is based on figures from 41 states provided exclusively by Burbio, a data company, and additional data from the nation’s 20 largest school systems.

Since last year, enrollment has declined 2.5% in Chicago, 2.4% in Houston and 2% in Nevada’s Clark County, while New York and Los Angeles saw drops of just under 2%. The Hillsborough County district in Florida, which includes Tampa, and the Gwinnett County School District, near Atlanta, are the only two large districts where enrollment now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Large district enrollment trends from 2018-19 to 2022-23

The graphic below shows enrollment trends for the nation’s 20 largest school districts. Divided by region, the breakdowns include changes in overall enrollment as well as in kindergarten. (Click here if you’re having trouble viewing the chart)

In California, which has seen a whopping 5% drop in its student population since 2020, the enrollment decline has slowed, according to . But the downward slope in birth rates and exodus of parents from high-priced areas has left district and charter leaders with limited options.

Summit Public Schools in California’s Bay Area — a well-established charter network that spawned an online learning platform still used by 300 schools nationwide — will at the end of this school year. 

Following a community and in Oakland, the local school board decided in January not to close several schools. Now, amid an ongoing , the board is reconsidering whether to because of enrollment decline.

“There is always this quality and convenience tension,” said Lakisha Young, CEO of Oakland Reach, a parent advocacy organization. “Everyone wants a school in their neighborhood that they can walk their kids to.”

But she called the emotional debate over closing schools a distraction from more important issues — namely that a majority of students aren’t . A third of families in the city , and some have moved further inland to Antioch or southeast to the Central Valley. 

“If people have the opportunity to move to other places that are slower and quieter and safer, they are going to do that,” she said. “These decisions are not just made out of desperation, they are also out of aspiration.”

‘You just come here’

Some of those same aspirations are fueling a Republican push to give unhappy parents more options. Twelve states now offer education savings accounts, which allow families to use public funds to pay the costs of private school or homeschooling. Despite pushback from such programs take funding away from public schools and lack accountability, similar legislation has been introduced in several more states, including , and .

“This pandemic was the perfect incubation event that really caused homeschooling to thrive,” said Bob Templeton, another enrollment consultant with , a housing market research company. “We’re seeing this dramatic change in how we educate kids.”

In Texas, where the legislature is currently , existing options like charters and homeschooling have contributed to a decline in what Templeton calls the “capture rate” — the percentage of children from a particular community attending their local public school. 

“If they’re down 200 kids in kindergarten and it doesn’t return, then in five to seven years, that district is going to be down several thousand kids,” Templeton said. “You need to get ready to close schools.”

Statewide enrollment shifts since 2021-22

*Click the circle next to state to see districts with the greatest enrollment gain, greatest enrollment loss and % change for state’s largest district. (Click here if you’re having trouble viewing the chart)

He consults for districts surrounding some of the state’s large urban systems and used to be able to reliably calculate that 100 new homes would result in 50 more students. Not anymore. 

He also monitors between districts. One school system he works with, Pflugerville, near Austin, took in 584 students from other systems this year. But almost 5,400 transferred out to both charters and other districts. Leaders have put off closing schools for now, which Templeton said just “kicks the can down the road.” 

He and Eschbacher advise districts to stay competitive by designing school models that parents want. In some cases, that’s paying off. 

The San Antonio Independent School District has had success with a 2017 state law that provides incentives to partner with charters and nonprofit organizations to run schools. 

Rebecca McMains decided to enroll her daughter in one of them, Lamar Elementary, after considering close to 10 public, private and charter schools in the area. Because her daughter has disabilities and an “elaborate” special education plan, the choice wasn’t easy.

“I knew I was going to be heard at Lamar. They are very parent-focused,” said McMains. She said staff members respond to her texts and don’t push back when she has a request, like having a nurse accompany her daughter on a field trip to NASA. “I’m now being thanked for my advocacy.”

But some parents have found their local public schools loath to accommodate the needs of those they are used to seeing as a captive audience.

Jana Wilcox Lavin, a Las Vegas mom, runs Opportunity 180, a nonprofit that supports school choice and formerly led a that converted low-performing schools into charters. Nonetheless, she was willing to consider her Clark County neighborhood school for her daughter, who starts kindergarten in 2024.

When she called the local school to ask for a tour, officials turned her down, citing concerns about student privacy. She turned to a district administrator, who said she could visit the building but not observe classrooms. Spokesman Tod Story said that while no policy prohibits parents from visiting schools, officials “err on the side of caution to protect our students.”

 Lavin said she just wanted to make a well-informed choice.

“When I asked how I should assess if the zoned school was a good fit,” she said, “I was told, ‘We are your neighborhood school. You just come here.’ ”

An ‘absolute asteroid’ 

That’s less true than ever before. The options available to families have expanded so rapidly that researchers are struggling to keep up.

Counts of how many students are homeschooled are and private school enrollment figures can be a year or two behind. That’s one reason Thomas Dee, a Stanford University education professor who tracks enrollment trends, was unable to account for of students who left public schools. 

That uncertainty makes it hard to tell whether the American school system is experiencing temporary chaos or a more permanent sea change.

Nat Malkus, the deputy director of education policy at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, called the pandemic an “absolute asteroid” of a disruptive event. Still, he doesn’t expect ESAs or other emerging models to cause as much damage to the public education system as predict.

“It’s hard to overestimate the incumbent’s strength,” he said.

That’s the case in Florida, where enrollment grew 1.3% this year and the Hillsborough district expects to keep building schools for years to come to accommodate growth. 

In states with declining numbers, like Oregon, district leaders are more wary. School choice hope to get an ESA initiative on the ballot next year, but McKenzie, the Parkrose board member, is concerned such a program would hobble district schools that are already strapped for cash.

“I can understand a parent may feel like they have a better option,” she said.“But it creates a divisive system of who has the resources and who doesn’t. Less resources for the classroom impacts the whole community.”