The found by the start of the 2022-23 academic year the number of students who left their respective college grew to nearly 37 million — a 2.9 percent growth compared to the previous year.

But the overall number of students ages 18 to 64 leaving was largely seen in four-year schools compared to two-year programs.

Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the , said the advising model utilized at community colleges across the country has contributed to their retention by developing an individualized plan for students to schedule classes and monitor progress.

“What that means is [community colleges] have created a much clearer pathway to a degree and restructured their advising systems to ensure students get on those pathways early on,” Wyner told ����Ӱ��, noting schools such as the and in Texas as prime examples of successful models.

Laurel Williamson, deputy chancellor and president at San Jacinto College, said the advising model is particularly helpful for first generation college students.

“It used to be just giving the student a schedule or telling them to go online and pick some classes — that’s crazy,” Williamson told ����Ӱ��. “Students don’t know how to pick classes…[and] we weren’t consciously thinking about it from the student experience side.”

Today nearly 400 community colleges in 16 states have implemented guided pathways reforms, according to the that designed the advising system in 2015.

“Guided pathways have enabled community colleges to reduce the number of students leaving and therefore having less of a population of ‘some college no degree’ adults,” Wyner added.

Williamson said Texas has been “proactive” about using guided pathways, noting 48 of the 50 community colleges have adopted the advising system. 

“[Guided] pathways bring you to focus on what is really important in terms of student completion and student goals,” Williamson said. “It could be a one year certificate, it could be an associate degree. But to boil that down, it is entry into the workforce at a family sustaining wage or an on-ramp to transfer with no loss of credits and junior status at a university.”

Since adopting the model in 2016, Williamson said the key benefit for students is the “thought out” academic advising.

“If you come in and say ‘I want to be a communications major and I want to transfer to the University of Houston-Clear Lake campus we map out the whole trajectory from your entry here to your completion of a bachelor’s degree at Clear Lake so there’s no confusion,” Williamson said.

Mike Flores, chancellor at the , agreed with Williamson and emphasized how the advising system is flexible if a student decides to change their major.

“If the catalog changes, the core requirements change or anything in the general education requirements change at the receiving institution, then our folks are some of the first to know and they then revise the advising guide accordingly,” Flores told ����Ӱ��.

Guided pathways have helped drive down the schools’ degree completion rates from 4.4 to 3.6 years.

“We know time is the enemy of degree completion for our students because education is just one of multiple commitments that they have in their lives,” Flores said, noting that 65 percent of his students are part-time and taking two to three courses each term. 

“It’s saving them time and it’s saving them money, and in turn, we see more students graduating,” Flores said.

Growth in Students Leaving College

The report found the number of students leaving a public four-year school increased by 2.9 percent. But public two-year schools decreased by 4.1 percent — or 52,100 students.

The report also noted the population of students leaving college continues to be less white and more male than the overall undergraduate population — with Latino and Black students disproportionately represented.

Latino and Black students were 24.4 and 19.1 percent of the students leaving college compared to being 21.5 and 14 percent of all enrolled undergraduates in the 2022-23 academic year. 

Wyner believes this disparity is due to students’ enrollment patterns, noting that Black, Latino, Native American and low-income students often don’t choose majors that lead to well paying jobs.

“When we look at which programs those populations are engaged in, they tend to be in programs of study that are less likely to lead to a job with a family-sustaining wage or for a community college student to get a bachelor’s degree,” Wyner said, such as general studies which signals students are entering school without a clear post-graduate plan.

He added that community colleges using guided pathways have seen an increase in degree completion because of their emphasis on career advising.

“​​When students don’t have a promise that the degree and programs they’re enrolled in are likely to lead to strong outcomes, then the chances they’re going to drop out are likely to be much greater,” Wyner said. 

“If I don’t see a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow,” said Wyner, “why continue to travel across that rainbow?” 

Overall college enrollment surged by 2.1 percent in fall 2023 compared to last year’s decrease of 0.9 percent, according to the .

But freshmen enrollment for this fall declined by 3.6 percent, particularly among 18- to 20-year-olds in four-year institutions — reversing last year’s promising 4.6 percent increase. Instead, community colleges led enrollment gains, particularly among freshmen over 21.

The enrollment increase among all freshmen at community colleges signal students’ growing interest in programs such as healthcare and construction offering short-term commitments that lead to direct employment connections, the report found.

Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, said in a statement the freshmen decline is a “troubling sign” for four-year institutions as young students opt out.

“This disparity in age aligns with the disparity in the kind of schools and the types of programs students are now choosing,” Shapiro told ����Ӱ��.

Here are four key takeaways from the report:

1. Young students ages 18 to 20 led freshmen enrollment declines.

Freshmen enrollment, particularly in the 18 to 20 age group, declined by 5.2 percent despite last year’s 4.5 percent increase.

However, freshmen in the 21 to 24, 25 to 29 and over 30 age groups increased by 14.3 percent, 17.4 percent and 24.4 percent respectively.

The freshmen enrollment trend was not expected as more students applied to college for the 2023-24 academic year than last year, reported.

Shapiro said the age disparity stems from young students’ reluctance to choose traditional four-year institutions — opting instead for community colleges and certificate programs.

“This is something that should not be news to anyone at any four-year institution,” Shapiro said.

“If you’re less confident the job you get, even after earning a degree, is going to pay you significantly more than what you could make right now, it makes sense why young students would focus on short-term programs that have more direct connections to the workforce,” he added.

Kevin Carey, vice president of education policy for , told the strong job market has exacerbated difficulties for four-year institutions to recruit high school graduates.

“A lot of four-year institutions are competing with the job market,” Carey said. “Some of those shorter-term degrees could represent an attempt to compromise with it.”

2. Community colleges led undergraduate enrollment growth.

Undergraduate enrollment gains particularly come from community colleges — accounting for nearly 59% of overall growth.

Community college enrollment also increased by 4.4 percent compared to last year’s 0.1 percent decline.

This growth suggests community colleges are starting to recover after taking a hit during the pandemic, the report found.

Shapiro said this aligns with the age disparities seen in freshmen enrollment as older students are more likely to attend community college over four-year institutions.

“Community colleges have only now started to improve,” Shapiro said. “To me, that signals students are looking for shorter programs, shorter commitments of time and more direct employment linkages.”

Thomas Brock, director of the , told shifting attitudes toward four-year institutions have had indirect benefits for community colleges.

“Whether it’s around affordability, debt, preparing for the job market, I think perhaps in some ways the negative press has been a little more directed toward the four-year sector,” Brock said.

3. White student enrollment declined as Black, Latino and Asian students grew.

Black, Latino and Asian students lead overall undergraduate enrollment growth — increasing by 2.1 percent, 4.2 percent and 4 percent respectively.

White students declined by 0.9 percent, a continuation of last year’s 4.8 percent drop, but Shapiro said this is in part due to the ending race-conscious admissions.

“Part of the apparent decline we see in white students is because they’re not revealing their race,” Shapiro said.

He added how these demographic shifts trickle down to , with less white students graduating compared to their Black, Latino and Asian peers.

4. Male student enrollment grew at nearly twice the rate of female students.

Undergraduate male enrollment increased by 2.2 percent compared to female enrollment that increased by 1.2 percent. 

The gender disparity continues the greater impact the pandemic had on women the past two years, the report found.

Shapiro said this is in part due to job market growth in careers like construction and manufacturing that historically favor men.

“It’s a small difference, but it’s been steady,” Shapiro said.