The found by the start of the 2022-23 academic year the number of students who left their respective college grew to nearly 37 million — a 2.9 percent growth compared to the previous year.

But the overall number of students ages 18 to 64 leaving was largely seen in four-year schools compared to two-year programs.

Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the , said the advising model utilized at community colleges across the country has contributed to their retention by developing an individualized plan for students to schedule classes and monitor progress.

“What that means is [community colleges] have created a much clearer pathway to a degree and restructured their advising systems to ensure students get on those pathways early on,” Wyner told ����Ӱ��, noting schools such as the and in Texas as prime examples of successful models.

Laurel Williamson, deputy chancellor and president at San Jacinto College, said the advising model is particularly helpful for first generation college students.

“It used to be just giving the student a schedule or telling them to go online and pick some classes — that’s crazy,” Williamson told ����Ӱ��. “Students don’t know how to pick classes…[and] we weren’t consciously thinking about it from the student experience side.”

Today nearly 400 community colleges in 16 states have implemented guided pathways reforms, according to the that designed the advising system in 2015.

“Guided pathways have enabled community colleges to reduce the number of students leaving and therefore having less of a population of ‘some college no degree’ adults,” Wyner added.

Williamson said Texas has been “proactive” about using guided pathways, noting 48 of the 50 community colleges have adopted the advising system. 

“[Guided] pathways bring you to focus on what is really important in terms of student completion and student goals,” Williamson said. “It could be a one year certificate, it could be an associate degree. But to boil that down, it is entry into the workforce at a family sustaining wage or an on-ramp to transfer with no loss of credits and junior status at a university.”

Since adopting the model in 2016, Williamson said the key benefit for students is the “thought out” academic advising.

“If you come in and say ‘I want to be a communications major and I want to transfer to the University of Houston-Clear Lake campus we map out the whole trajectory from your entry here to your completion of a bachelor’s degree at Clear Lake so there’s no confusion,” Williamson said.

Mike Flores, chancellor at the , agreed with Williamson and emphasized how the advising system is flexible if a student decides to change their major.

“If the catalog changes, the core requirements change or anything in the general education requirements change at the receiving institution, then our folks are some of the first to know and they then revise the advising guide accordingly,” Flores told ����Ӱ��.

Guided pathways have helped drive down the schools’ degree completion rates from 4.4 to 3.6 years.

“We know time is the enemy of degree completion for our students because education is just one of multiple commitments that they have in their lives,” Flores said, noting that 65 percent of his students are part-time and taking two to three courses each term. 

“It’s saving them time and it’s saving them money, and in turn, we see more students graduating,” Flores said.

Growth in Students Leaving College

The report found the number of students leaving a public four-year school increased by 2.9 percent. But public two-year schools decreased by 4.1 percent — or 52,100 students.

The report also noted the population of students leaving college continues to be less white and more male than the overall undergraduate population — with Latino and Black students disproportionately represented.

Latino and Black students were 24.4 and 19.1 percent of the students leaving college compared to being 21.5 and 14 percent of all enrolled undergraduates in the 2022-23 academic year. 

Wyner believes this disparity is due to students’ enrollment patterns, noting that Black, Latino, Native American and low-income students often don’t choose majors that lead to well paying jobs.

“When we look at which programs those populations are engaged in, they tend to be in programs of study that are less likely to lead to a job with a family-sustaining wage or for a community college student to get a bachelor’s degree,” Wyner said, such as general studies which signals students are entering school without a clear post-graduate plan.

He added that community colleges using guided pathways have seen an increase in degree completion because of their emphasis on career advising.

“​​When students don’t have a promise that the degree and programs they’re enrolled in are likely to lead to strong outcomes, then the chances they’re going to drop out are likely to be much greater,” Wyner said. 

“If I don’t see a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow,” said Wyner, “why continue to travel across that rainbow?” 

In January, the surveyed more than 1,600 public K-12 schools from every state and the District of Columbia — where 53 percent in low poverty neighborhoods said they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college and 52 percent said the same for the workforce.

But public school educators in high poverty neighborhoods were lower at 33 and 43 percent respectively.

“If they’re assessing themselves based on the post-graduation success of their students, it makes sense why they feel they’re not doing as well,” said Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the .

Wyner said the college enrollment rate of high school students from low-income backgrounds is generally less than those from higher income areas, and they end up facing lower wages long-term if they go directly into the workforce.

“While it’s discouraging that schools serving lower income and more diverse students believe they’re not doing as good a job, something they can do about it appears in the study,” he added, noting the correlation between offering more advanced coursework — such as Advanced Placement and dual enrollment — and their perception of how they prepare high school students for the next stage of their lives.

The survey, which serves as part of the latest tracking the pandemic’s impact on public education, asked educators how they viewed their preparation of high school students for college and the workforce on a five-point scale — from “poor” to “excellent.”

About 47 percent said they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college and 50 percent said the same for the workforce.

“I hope this data will spark important conversations that lead to improved opportunities for all students,” said NCES commissioner Peggy Carr in a statement.

Here are four things to know about the survey findings:

1. Public school educators in high poverty neighborhoods with more students of color were less likely to say they’re preparing students well for college and the workforce.

The report found public schools in low poverty neighborhoods were more likely to say they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college compared to those in high poverty neighborhoods — a difference of 53 and 33 percent respectively.

Statistics were similar about the workforce — a difference of 52 and 43 percent respectively.

The report also found public schools with fewer students of color were more likely to say they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college compared to those with a majority — a difference of 57 and 36 percent respectively.

Statistics were similar about the workforce — a difference of 55 and 41 percent respectively.

Wyner said the contrast based on poverty level and the number of students of color comes from the disproportionate access to advanced coursework.

“We’ve known for a long time that AP access is inequitable, but the fact that dual enrollment access is also inequitable…is troubling,” Wyner said.

The study found 73 percent of public schools offered at least one of the following: Advanced Placement, Pre-Advanced Placement, International Baccalaureate or dual enrollment courses.

About 76 percent of public schools in low poverty neighborhoods offered advanced coursework compared to 65 percent of those in high poverty neighborhoods.

But the difference was greater based on the number of students of color.

About 84 percent of public schools with fewer students of color offered advanced coursework compared to 65 percent of those with a majority.

“It’s a little bit of a surprise because [a majority] of those courses are offered by community colleges which are often located in areas that serve high need high school students,” Wyner said. 

“So you would think that those partnerships would be stronger and enable expanded access to advanced courses — but they don’t.”

2. Public school educators with smaller student populations were less likely to say they’re preparing students well for college and the workforce.

Public schools with less than 300 students were the least likely to say they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college and the workforce compared to those with a larger population.

Wyner said this is because public schools with fewer students are generally located in less densely populated areas, such as towns and rural areas, with less resources and proximity to other educational institutions.

“Some of this has to do with urbanicity,” Wyner said. “In some communities, economic opportunity is limited…so high school students, no matter how well-prepared, may not readily be able to find a job if they’re staying in these areas.”

3. Public school educators in towns were less likely to say they’re preparing students well for college — but those in cities had similar attitudes for the workforce.

Public schools in towns were the least likely to say they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college compared to those in cities, suburbs or rural areas.

But those in cities were the least likely to have the same attitude about preparing students for the workforce.

Wyner said the local economies are likely driving these perceptions — with public schools in towns and rural areas having a higher number of blue collar jobs compared to cities having a higher number of college opportunities.

“The reality is that schools that are in knowledge-based economies, which tend to be centered in cities, will consider themselves more capable of preparing students for a liberal arts education whereas schools in areas with a higher percentage of jobs in agriculture, manufacturing or some of the more blue collar jobs will view themselves as stronger in preparing students for the workforce,” Wyner said.

“There are also many parts of the country that have long traditions of having jobs that don’t require postsecondary training,” he added, pointing to the lingering impact of careers in the automotive, steel mill and manufacturing industries.

4. Public school educators in the Midwest were less likely to say they’re preparing students well for college — but those in the West had similar attitudes for the workforce. 

Public schools in the Midwest were the least likely to say they do a “very good” or “excellent” job preparing students for college compared to those in the Northeast, South and West.

But those in the West were the least likely to have the same attitude about preparing students for the workforce.

“It makes sense why we see a correlation between location, morality and postsecondary and employment opportunities for students,” Wyner said.

“This study should offer guidance to [public schools] to find the right ways to prepare students for college and the workforce…and give them that sense of self-efficacy that they know what’s right for them.”

The found community colleges led overall undergraduate enrollment growth in the fall of 2023 by 2.6 percent, or 118,000 students, compared to the previous year.

Community college gains were carried by those with a vocational program focus — pointing to students’ growing disdain for working towards a four-year degree.

“We have shortages in a lot of jobs that require bachelor’s degrees,” said Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the , including well-paying careers in nursing, teaching and software engineering that pay north of $50,000 annually.

“So when we see students entering community college not in those liberal arts programs that lead to bachelor’s degrees, it’s troubling,” Wyner said, adding that a vocational degree won’t provide the long-term financial payoff that would more likely come from a four-year education.

Career-Driven Programs Lead Enrollment Growth

Community colleges with a vocational program focus grew 16 percent in the fall of 2023 compared to the previous year’s 3 percent gain — bringing them above their pre-pandemic enrollment by nearly 30,000 students.

But, transfer-focused community colleges only grew slightly by 0.2 percent in the fall of 2023 compared to the previous year’s 1.1 percent drop — continuing their pre-pandemic enrollment decline by more than 500,000 students.

“There’s fewer community college students entering a transfer pipeline that we can’t afford to lose,” said John Fink, a senior research associate at the .

This trend comes as community colleges remain in a “very deep hole” because their uptick in enrollment doesn’t come close to pre-pandemic numbers, he added.

The report found community college growth in the fall of 2023 brings current enrollment to about 4.5 million students.

Popular programs include computer science, business and health that grew by 9.1, 3.5 and 2.4 percent respectively. 

But, there were more than 5.2 million students enrolled pre-pandemic — leaving community colleges with a net loss of nearly 700,000 students.

“Community college growth is certainly an encouraging sign, but there’s still a long way to go to get back to where we were,” said Jeremy Cohen, a research associate at the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Despite the growing number of companies no longer requiring job applicants to have a four-year degree, their hiring behavior hasn’t changed, Wyner said.

“The majority of good jobs in our country are populated by workers that have a bachelor’s or greater,” Wyner said. “So if students aren’t enrolling in community college programs that align with attaining a bachelor’s, we’re going to really struggle filling job vacancies in the future.”

Wyner said the main factor community college-goers rely on to decide whether a four-year degree is worth pursuing is “word-of-mouth” experiences from current students.

“If a student leaves [a four-year] college without a degree or with a degree that didn’t give them a better life than they would have had if they never attended, they’re going to go back to their communities and when people ask if it was worth it their answer is going to be no,” Wyner said. 

“So the decisions we’re seeing them make may be entirely rational because the educational system keeps failing far too many of them,” he added.

Transfer Student Declines Impact Four-Year Schools

This trend has implications for four-year institutions that rely on transfer students as part of their enrollment strategy, Fink said. 

“It might seem like this is a community college issue, but that’s going to translate in years forward to many four-year institutions,” Fink said.

Wyner added how leaders at four-year institutions need to play their part in correcting community college enrollment declines.

“Instead of lamenting the fact that student enrollment in community colleges has come down, four-year schools need to lean in and do something about it,” Wyner said, such as emulating Northern Virginia Community College’s that provides dual enrollment and guaranteed admission at George Mason University.

He said their program transfers more than 4,000 students every year to George Mason University and has a graduation rate of over 70 percent — higher than the national undergraduate average of .

“If you create really strong pathways for students, they’ll come back to community colleges,” Wyner said.

This article is part of a series in partnership with reporter Joshua Bay’s highlighting the struggles of community college students.

While overall completion rates for students nationwide stalled at all colleges, Black and Latino students’ saw success at community colleges, which were prepared for pandemic challenges with tools in place like online classes for working students.

“[Community colleges] were better situated to handle the disruption from in-person to online courses…and that, in fact, led to greater retention rates,” said Josh Wyner, founder and executive director of the .

Analyzing trends for students six years after enrolling in postsecondary education, a from the found a 62.2 percent completion rate for those starting in fall 2017 — a stalled number compared to 2015.

But, Black and Latino students’ who enrolled in fall 2017 saw completion rates decline to 43.4 percent and 50.1 percent respectively — a 0.5 and 0.2 percentage point drop compared to those enrolled in 2016.

Wyner said the imbalance for Black and Latino students came from either the need to work when parents lost their jobs or the need to take care of siblings because their parents didn’t have jobs during the pandemic where they could work from home.

“Income and wealth disparities often prevented students from these groups from not only enrolling in college in the first place but also staying when there were disruptions,” Wyner said.

At public four-year colleges, Black and Latino students saw steeper completion rate declines to 48.7 percent and 56.1 percent respectively — a 1.5 and 1 percentage point drop compared to those enrolled in 2016.

In contrast, Black and Latino students at community colleges increased to 31.6 percent and 38 percent respectively — a 0.5 and 0.1 percentage point gain compared to those enrolled in 2016.

Wyner said the completion rate hike at community colleges was because those schools historically enroll students with diverse educational needs, and by necessity, were already invested in online learning pre-pandemic.

Amrit Ahluwalia, director of strategic insights at , said in a statement in response to the report that the increase in community college completion rates show how young students view college as a “means to an end.”

“When they get the learning they feel they need to support their short-term employability, they find jobs and leave their programs,” Ahluwalia said.

Wyner said because Black and Latino students often come from lower income communities, they view community college as a more attainable means of education.

“On average, tuition for a public institution is twice the rate at a four-year college than a community college,” Wyner said. “So it would make sense that if income correlates [completion declines for Black and Latino students] would be felt more in the four-year space than the community college space.”

This comes as more than 2.4 million students enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in fall 2017 — an increase of 1.2 percent compared to 2016.

“Not only have fewer of the 2017 starters completed as of 2023, but the data also show fewer still enrolled, suggesting that this is more than just a matter of slower progress during the pandemic years,” Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research center, said in a statement.

In addition, the gender gap continued to grow for those enrolled in fall 2017 — with a completion rate of 65.6 percent for female students compared to 58.4 percent for males.

Wyner said the low number of colleges providing hands-on learning had a disproportionate impact on male student retention.

“There’s pretty good evidence that adults learn better when theory is taught alongside hands-on learning,” Wyner said. “I do think that is something that really needs to be thought about as a way to bring men back into higher ed.”

He added how this is especially true for male students who feel disconnected from learning because they were raised in families that worked blue-collar jobs without needing a degree.

Moving forward, Wyner said colleges need to fully address the value they offer to students so they continue to stick around despite their life circumstances.

“If your programs aren’t actually delivering value to students, they may be making entirely rational decisions to leave,” Wyner said.