The findings span the early weeks of the second Trump administration. Since that time, immigration enforcement has escalated dramatically, particularly in Democratic cities targeted by the president, including and . 

Schools became fair game days into the new administration when it against enforcement actions near or on-site. Hospitals and churches, too, are no longer exempt from raids.

Earlier this month, a day care teacher in Chicago was dragged out of her preschool by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and their families. A federal judge ruled her and she has since been . 

The incident, caught on camera and made public, has drawn widespread condemnation. 

鈥淪chools should be safe environments for children to learn, for their brains to develop and for them to form secure attachments,鈥� said Melissa Boteach, chief policy officer at , an early childhood advocacy group.  

Boteach noted, too, 20% of the early educator workforce are immigrants and while a vast majority have legal status, their families and communities might not. 

鈥淚f they are fearful and anxious, they are bringing that fear and anxiety with them,鈥� she said. 鈥淎nd now you don鈥檛 know when enforcement will strike and that can be incredibly traumatic even if the child is a U.S. citizen.鈥�

Many high school students, including in , have already been held or deported. 

The 113,000 children in the Stanford study 鈥� they attended Bakersfield City Elementary, Fresno Unified, Kerman Unified, Southern Kern Unified and Tehachapi Unified school districts 鈥� lost more than 81,000 days of instruction in the two months following the January raids, which lasted three days and targeted agriculture workers. 

None of the Central Valley schools returned calls or emails last week requesting comment. 

Thomas S. Dee, a professor at Stanford鈥檚 Graduate School of Education, examined daily attendance data, which helped him pinpoint a falloff he attributes to harsh immigration tactics.

鈥淭hat really allowed me to identify how things changed when the raids began,鈥� he said. 鈥淪omething very distinctive occurred.鈥�

Dee examined data from August through May in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 school years and from August 2024 through February of this year. He said he was surprised by the magnitude of the impact the raids had on attendance.

Forceful immigration tactics, pandemic-related learning loss and mental health issues combine to exhaust students and families to the point that kids stay home from school, he said.

鈥淚 see this increase in absences as an indicator of ways in which we are exacerbating all of those problems,鈥� Dee said. 鈥淎ggressive interior immigration enforcement drives families with school-age children away.鈥�

Just this week, student absences in Charlotte, North Carolina, two days after federal immigration agents swept into the city, arresting 130 people. The Charlotte-Mecklenberg School District Monday. 

Adam Strom, co-founder and executive director of Re-Imagining Migration, said the relationship between schools and families is based on good faith. Immigration enforcement, a powerful disruptor, can be catastrophic.  

“Schools ask immigrant families for profound trust 鈥� trust with their children, their personal information, their futures,鈥� Strom said. 鈥淲hen ICE raids their communities, families respond by withdrawing from public institutions out of caution 鈥� a protective instinct that’s entirely rational. The attendance data tells us exactly what happens when institutions meant to build belonging become sources of fear instead.鈥�

And, he said, that anxiety extends well beyond families with undocumented members.

鈥淲hen people with legal status, and even citizens, are being detained based on how they look and speak, every immigrant family regardless of documentation worries about whether their children will be safe on the way to and from school,鈥� he said. 

Immigration agents have swept up , including children, holding some detainees for days. Dee said aggressive immigration tactics not only hurt kids, but schools themselves as they are funded based on attendance. 

As to why absenteeism holds steady even weeks after a raid, he said the impact of such enforcement actions linger. Some families become shut-ins. Others might move away in search of safety. 

He said, too, the 81,000 missed days of instruction shoots up to 725,000 when applied to the entire four-county region. 

Some fuel California鈥檚 agricultural industry. Reports show roughly half have citizenship or other work authorization. California is home to nearly : Roughly 112,000 between the ages of 5 and 18 are enrolled in the state鈥檚 schools. 

Dubbed 鈥淥peration Return to Sender,鈥� the Central Valley raids, conducted by the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, began January 7, 2025, during the tail end of the Biden era 鈥� and the day after the 2024 presidential election was certified by Congress. 

Three former Biden aides said the man who led the effort, Gregory Bovino, and conducted the Central Valley action 鈥� hundreds of miles from the U.S. border 鈥� without the permission of higher-ups. While border patrol officials said they were targeting only criminals, subsequent investigations found that they of 77 of the 78 people arrested during the sweep. 

The American Civil Liberties Union and U.S. Border Patrol officials in February for these enforcement actions, which it deemed a 鈥渇ishing expedition.鈥� Bovino has since led other controversial immigration operations, including those in and the one . Reports this week say enforcement target.

Dee said kids in early grades were more likely to miss school than their older peers because those living with undocumented immigrants tend to be younger and families with small children might be more fearful of deportation.

Kathy Mulrooney, director of the Infant and Early Childhood Mental Health Strategy Program at , said young children also suffer a particular cognitive trauma when the adults around them are detained. 

鈥淓ven if babies don鈥檛 have the words for what鈥檚 happening, their bodies feel the fear,鈥� she said. 

When a parent is suddenly taken, Mulrooney said, or when a community is shaken by aggressive immigration tactics, students are left with little ability to feel the type of safety and curiosity they need to learn.

鈥淪imply put, when a child鈥檚 brain is in survival mode, learning takes a back seat,鈥� she said. 

Kindergarten counts continue to dwindle in many states 鈥� evidence of falling birth rates and an ever-growing array of options luring parents away from traditional public schools. Experts fear those trends, as well as a and the looming cut-off of federal relief funds, amount to a perfect storm for U.S. education.

The $190 billion in pandemic aid that was provided to schools allowed many districts to temporarily salve the loss of funds tied to falling enrollment and to staff and programs. Those funds dry up in 17 months. As budget deficits grow and housing costs drive families out of urban areas, education leaders are staring down a host of unpalatable options, from half-empty buildings to staff.

鈥淚鈥檓 not a pro-school closure guy. That鈥檚 the worst part of school reform,鈥� said Brian Eschbacher, an enrollment consultant and a former Denver Public Schools official. 鈥淏ut if anyone was holding out hope for a bounce back, we have put that to rest.”

The Parkrose School District, outside Portland, Oregon, is one of many grappling with a budget shortfall.

鈥淲e have some decisions to make in the next few months,鈥� said Sonja McKenzie, a board member in the district, where enrollment has fallen 12% since 2018. Now leaders might have to slash positions for special education assistants. Talk of layoffs is also surfacing in , and .

McKenzie went door-to-door last fall asking voters to approve a tax levy to fund 22 positions, reminding them that the district, where nearly 30% of students are Hispanic, heeded their call to hire bilingual family liaisons. Voters .

Some families, she said, have been 鈥減riced out鈥� of the area, heading east to Gresham or across the Columbia River to Vancouver, Washington, where they can find more affordable housing. Those areas, McKenzie said, have 鈥渂enefited from our challenges.鈥� 

Desperation and aspiration

蜜桃影视鈥檚 enrollment analysis is based on figures from 41 states provided exclusively by Burbio, a data company, and additional data from the nation鈥檚 20 largest school systems.

Since last year, enrollment has declined 2.5% in Chicago, 2.4% in Houston and 2% in Nevada’s Clark County, while New York and Los Angeles saw drops of just under 2%. The Hillsborough County district in Florida, which includes Tampa, and the Gwinnett County School District, near Atlanta, are the only two large districts where enrollment now exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Large district enrollment trends from 2018-19 to 2022-23

The graphic below shows enrollment trends for the nation鈥檚 20 largest school districts. Divided by region, the breakdowns include changes in overall enrollment as well as in kindergarten. (Click here if you’re having trouble viewing the chart)

In California, which has seen a whopping 5% drop in its student population since 2020, the enrollment decline has slowed, according to . But the downward slope in birth rates and exodus of parents from high-priced areas has left district and charter leaders with limited options.

Summit Public Schools in California鈥檚 Bay Area 鈥� a well-established charter network that spawned an online learning platform still used by 300 schools nationwide 鈥� will at the end of this school year. 

Following a community and in Oakland, the local school board decided in January not to close several schools. Now, amid an ongoing , the board is reconsidering whether to because of enrollment decline.

鈥淭here is always this quality and convenience tension,鈥� said Lakisha Young, CEO of Oakland Reach, a parent advocacy organization. 鈥淓veryone wants a school in their neighborhood that they can walk their kids to.鈥�

But she called the emotional debate over closing schools a distraction from more important issues 鈥� namely that a majority of students aren鈥檛 . A third of families in the city , and some have moved further inland to Antioch or southeast to the Central Valley. 

鈥淚f people have the opportunity to move to other places that are slower and quieter and safer, they are going to do that,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hese decisions are not just made out of desperation, they are also out of aspiration.鈥�

鈥榊ou just come here鈥�

Some of those same aspirations are fueling a Republican push to give unhappy parents more options. Twelve states now offer education savings accounts, which allow families to use public funds to pay the costs of private school or homeschooling. Despite pushback from such programs take funding away from public schools and lack accountability, similar legislation has been introduced in several more states, including , and .

鈥淭his pandemic was the perfect incubation event that really caused homeschooling to thrive,鈥� said Bob Templeton, another enrollment consultant with , a housing market research company. 鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing this dramatic change in how we educate kids.鈥�

In Texas, where the legislature is currently , existing options like charters and homeschooling have contributed to a decline in what Templeton calls the 鈥渃apture rate鈥� 鈥� the percentage of children from a particular community attending their local public school. 

鈥淚f they鈥檙e down 200 kids in kindergarten and it doesn鈥檛 return, then in five to seven years, that district is going to be down several thousand kids,鈥� Templeton said. 鈥淵ou need to get ready to close schools.鈥�

Statewide enrollment shifts since 2021-22

*Click the circle next to state to see districts with the greatest enrollment gain, greatest enrollment loss and % change for state鈥檚 largest district. (Click here if you’re having trouble viewing the chart)

He consults for districts surrounding some of the state鈥檚 large urban systems and used to be able to reliably calculate that 100 new homes would result in 50 more students. Not anymore. 

He also monitors between districts. One school system he works with, Pflugerville, near Austin, took in 584 students from other systems this year. But almost 5,400 transferred out to both charters and other districts. Leaders have put off closing schools for now, which Templeton said just 鈥渒icks the can down the road.鈥� 

He and Eschbacher advise districts to stay competitive by designing school models that parents want. In some cases, that鈥檚 paying off. 

The San Antonio Independent School District has had success with a 2017 state law that provides incentives to partner with charters and nonprofit organizations to run schools. 

Rebecca McMains decided to enroll her daughter in one of them, Lamar Elementary, after considering close to 10 public, private and charter schools in the area. Because her daughter has disabilities and an 鈥渆laborate鈥� special education plan, the choice wasn鈥檛 easy.

鈥淚 knew I was going to be heard at Lamar. They are very parent-focused,鈥� said McMains. She said staff members respond to her texts and don鈥檛 push back when she has a request, like having a nurse accompany her daughter on a field trip to NASA. 鈥淚鈥檓 now being thanked for my advocacy.鈥�

But some parents have found their local public schools loath to accommodate the needs of those they are used to seeing as a captive audience.

Jana Wilcox Lavin, a Las Vegas mom, runs Opportunity 180, a nonprofit that supports school choice and formerly led a that converted low-performing schools into charters. Nonetheless, she was willing to consider her Clark County neighborhood school for her daughter, who starts kindergarten in 2024.

When she called the local school to ask for a tour, officials turned her down, citing concerns about student privacy. She turned to a district administrator, who said she could visit the building but not observe classrooms. Spokesman Tod Story said that while no policy prohibits parents from visiting schools, officials 鈥渆rr on the side of caution to protect our students.鈥�

 Lavin said she just wanted to make a well-informed choice.

鈥淲hen I asked how I should assess if the zoned school was a good fit,鈥� she said, 鈥淚 was told, 鈥榃e are your neighborhood school. You just come here.鈥� 鈥�

An 鈥榓bsolute asteroid鈥� 

That鈥檚 less true than ever before. The options available to families have expanded so rapidly that researchers are struggling to keep up.

Counts of how many students are homeschooled are and private school enrollment figures can be a year or two behind. That鈥檚 one reason Thomas Dee, a Stanford University education professor who tracks enrollment trends, was unable to account for of students who left public schools. 

That uncertainty makes it hard to tell whether the American school system is experiencing temporary chaos or a more permanent sea change.

Nat Malkus, the deputy director of education policy at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, called the pandemic an 鈥渁bsolute asteroid鈥� of a disruptive event. Still, he doesn鈥檛 expect ESAs or other emerging models to cause as much damage to the public education system as predict.

鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to overestimate the incumbent鈥檚 strength,鈥� he said.

That鈥檚 the case in Florida, where enrollment grew 1.3% this year and the Hillsborough district expects to keep building schools for years to come to accommodate growth. 

In states with declining numbers, like Oregon, district leaders are more wary. School choice hope to get an ESA initiative on the ballot next year, but McKenzie, the Parkrose board member, is concerned such a program would hobble district schools that are already strapped for cash.

鈥淚 can understand a parent may feel like they have a better option,鈥� she said.鈥淏ut it creates a divisive system of who has the resources and who doesn鈥檛. Less resources for the classroom impacts the whole community.鈥�

A year after the nation鈥檚 schools experienced a historic decline in enrollment, new data shows that many urban districts are still losing students, and those that rebounded this year typically haven鈥檛 returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Whether families withdrew to enroll their children in online charters, school them at home or fled to far-flung suburbs with more affordable housing, the pandemic has triggered population shifts that could change the composition of U.S. school districts for years to come.

Data from Burbio, a company that tracks COVID-related education trends, offers the first look at the degree to which states and districts have recovered from a punishing year of lockdown and remote learning. Out of 40 states and the District of Columbia, few have seen more than a 1% increase compared to 2020-21, when some states experienced declines as high as 5%.

Flat enrollment this year 鈥渕eans those kids did not come back,鈥� said Thomas Dee, an education professor at Stanford University. 鈥淧arents were making these enrollment decisions last summer. There was still a great deal of uncertainty. Parents wanted stability for their kids.鈥�

shows that last year鈥檚 losses were concentrated in the early grades. Those who opted not to enroll their young children in public schools last year, or found an in-person option somewhere else, might never return for middle or high school, Dee said. 

While enrollment in many of the nation鈥檚 urban districts was already shrinking before the pandemic, school closures and economic upheaval forced many families to make decisions they might have put off otherwise.

Barring further pandemic disruptions, student population trends will likely return to their pre-COVID pace, Dee said, but added, 鈥淭he effects of the sharp, recent enrollment declines may be long-lived. The fiscal consequences will remain for some while.鈥�

New York experienced the sharpest decline, a 2% drop 鈥� more than 48,000 students 鈥� since last year. That鈥檚 on top of the previous year鈥檚 3% decline. Enrollment in Florida saw the biggest bounce at 4%, or more than 111,000 additional students 鈥� a reflection of higher birth rates, job growth and fewer COVID restrictions under Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, experts say. 

Of the 10 largest districts in the nation, only Florida鈥檚 Orange and Hillsborough counties, home to Orlando and Tampa respectively, saw enrollment surpass pre-pandemic figures.

鈥淔lorida was continuing to grow when other states came to a plateau,鈥� said Susan MacManus, a political scientist from the University of South Florida. 鈥淭hings were open and you could still work.”

State data offers a glimpse of what will likely be further enrollment growth in Arizona, Florida and Utah 鈥� states with more affordable housing, growing tech sectors and outdoor living that became an important draw during COVID. At the same time, fewer people are moving to the Northeast from other states and countries, citing . 

District-level figures 鈥� provided exclusively by Burbio to 蜜桃影视 鈥� offer a richer picture of what happened to students after the pandemic began. The data, combined with state-level reports and interviews with district officials and parents, shows many urban districts lost students to growing exurbs. And some districts with no population growth added thousands of students in virtual schools.

Districts with enrollment loss could face tough decisions about layoffs and school closures in the near future. Meanwhile, smaller districts that are rapidly gaining students are struggling to hire staff and preserve the kind of close-knit environment that drew many parents in the first place.

鈥淭he pandemic kind of accelerated some of those pre-existing trends,鈥� said Alex Spurrier, an associate partner at Bellwether Education Partners, a think tank. While school closures forced many parents to look for other options, housing and rental prices were also pushing families out of major metro regions. 鈥淎ll you have to do is go to Zillow and see the year-over-year changes,鈥� he said.

In December 2019, Tanner and Miranda McCutchan relocated from northern California to Boise, Idaho 鈥� one of 10 metro areas that saw the most growth between 2020 and 2021, according to recent . That leaves two fewer children who will enter California鈥檚 schools in the coming years. Miranda stays home with 4-year-old Paige, who attends a Montessori preschool, and 18-month-old Emery, while her husband runs a glass company. 

鈥淲e couldn鈥檛 afford a house where we lived,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t was keep renting or move somewhere we could buy a place.鈥�

The fiscal cliff & 鈥楢rmageddon鈥�

In California, Burbio collected data only from Los Angeles, Oakland and San Diego. All three saw declines, due in part to California鈥檚 high-priced . With the state鈥檚 school-age population expected to keep over the next decade, district leaders are bracing for a to their budgets.

The Oakland Unified Public Schools offers a preview of what other districts with declining enrollment and birth rates will soon confront 鈥� the painful and unpopular decision to close schools. In February, the district, which saw a 5.6% enrollment decline compared to last year, decided it would over the next two years. Four others will merge or reduce grade levels.

In the Granite School District, near Salt Lake City, enrollment fell 2.4%, down to 60,371 this year, even though the state鈥檚 overall enrollment is up. 

The district has seen a decline in birth rates and an increase in families fleeing to 鈥渃heaper areas to build larger homes within [Salt Lake County],鈥� said Benjamin Horsley, chief of staff for the district, adding officials anticipate 鈥渓eveling out around 55,000 students.鈥� The district has already closed three schools and expects to shutter 10 to 14 more in the next five to seven years. 

Districts experiencing similar losses should have been making those tough calls before the pandemic, said Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University.

鈥淔ederal [relief] money is delaying it a year or two, and the fact that state budgets are healthy is delaying it a year or two,鈥� she said about closing schools. Roza advises a network of over 40 urban districts nationwide, the majority of which are shrinking. 鈥淔ederal money will run out, and enrollment for some of them isn’t isn’t going to come back. These cost factors are going to just slam down on people.鈥�

Los Angeles Unified, for example, saw a 5.9% decline this year and is expected to by fall of 2023. Superintendent Alberto Carvalho said Monday that he鈥檚 not yet considering closing schools, but added that at the end of his first 100 days 鈥� in about two more months 鈥� he will discuss 鈥渢echnical corrections鈥� and 鈥渂elt tightening鈥� measures to respond to the loss of students. 

He agrees with Roza about the dangers of the approaching fiscal cliff, and didn鈥檛 mince words about what would happen to the district if it didn鈥檛 turn enrollment trends around by the time federal relief funds dry up in 2024. 鈥淎rmageddon,鈥� he said. Then he added, 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a hurricane of massive proportions.鈥� 

The student population in the Clark County School District, which includes Las Vegas, began dropping about five years ago. Superintendent Jesus Jara attributes much of the decline to the growth of charter schools. 

鈥淭he anti-charter discussion 鈥� that was in the 鈥�90s. They鈥檙e not going away,鈥� Jara said. 鈥淭he discussion is how are we more flexible and how we are more agile for our communities.鈥� 

Despite declining enrollment, the district needs to build and renovate 33 schools to better serve its current population, he said. That includes breaking up some large, 4,000-student high schools to offer more 鈥渂outique鈥� and career-focused programs to compete with charters.

鈥楬as not slowed down鈥�

Districts with falling enrollment are strategizing how to keep the students they have. But accelerated growth comes with its own challenges, Roza said, putting pressure on leaders to act fast, especially if they need to recruit staff amid a nationwide hiring shortage. Schools might be 鈥渄igging deeper and deeper into applicant pools鈥� and not necessarily choosing the best candidates, she said. 

Liberty Hill Independent School District, northwest of Austin, Texas, didn鈥檛 lose students during the pandemic. Enrollment, at 5,539 last year, is now over 6,800 鈥� a 23% percent leap. It鈥檚 a bedroom community that just got its first H-E-B, a 鈥渂ig box鈥� grocery store, and is conveniently located near a toll road with easy access to Apple鈥檚 new complex near Austin. 

During the pandemic, the community 鈥渁ctually saw a 40 percent rise in residential home builds, and it has not slowed down,鈥� said Superintendent Steven Snell. The district has eight schools now and will open a ninth next year. 

Parents value the district鈥檚 small-town atmosphere and the sense that educators know their families well, he said 鈥� connections that could be hard to maintain as the district adds 1,000 students a year. Meanwhile, the district has raised salaries for substitutes because of shortages, and there鈥檚 a scarcity of available bus drivers, custodians and cafeteria workers.

鈥淲hen you have a salary that is causing you to live paycheck to paycheck, you鈥檙e going to jump ship for a little more money to survive,鈥� Snell said.

Many of the enrollment swings this year reflect the success of online programs in meeting the needs of families for consistency amid the pandemic鈥檚 many disruptions.

For some virtual charters, the enrollment spike was temporary. Oklahoma鈥檚 Epic One on One, an online program, had 17,106 students in 2019-20. Enrollment roughly doubled last year and is now down to 23,156, according to state data.  

鈥淢any parents decided to enroll their student in Epic once the pandemic hit, but it appears that trend has slowed with this year’s enrollment numbers,鈥� said Carrie Burkhart, a spokeswoman for the Oklahoma Department of Education.

But whether parents are concerned about COVID or found that online school better suits their children, virtual programs remain in high demand. 

South Carolina鈥檚 enrollment has increased almost 2%, due in part to 鈥渟kyrocketing enrollment in virtual charters,鈥� said Ryan Brown, spokesman for the state鈥檚 education department.

The student population in the Huntsville Independent School District, about an hour north of Houston, shot up 40% this year because it operates the Texas Online Preparatory School. And in Colorado, Harrison School District 2, near Colorado Springs, began a partnership with The Vanguard School, a virtual program and one of three charter systems affiliated with the district.

鈥淢any might see it as a public school district versus charter battle,鈥� said Harrison Superintendent Wendy Birhanzel. 鈥淲e believe this makes us stronger and responds to the needs of the community.鈥�

Homeschooling trends

While Burbio data offers an incomplete picture of where lost students have gone, others have been trying to fill in the missing pieces. The Census Bureau鈥檚 Household Pulse Survey showed that homeschooling jumped from about 5% of households to the fall after the pandemic began. By the start of this school year, it had settled back down to about 7%, according to August 2021 data.

Others have left for more established private schools. Michelle Walker, an Oregon mother who became an advocate for school reopening last year, withdrew her daughter from the Canby Public Schools, near Portland. She secured a spot 鈥� and financial aid 鈥� at a private school for fourth-grader MacKenzie. She also took out a loan and received money from family to help cover tuition.

鈥淚 drive 80 miles roundtrip every day to make sure she goes to a good school,鈥� she said. 鈥淚t would take a lot for me to put her back in public schools.鈥�

shows many other parents are following suit. According to Burbio, most districts in Multnomah County, which includes Portland, and nearby Clackamas County have seen enrollment declines this year. 

Some district leaders are still hoping to lure back students they鈥檝e lost. The Bernalillo Public Schools, north of Albuquerque, serves families in Pueblo and Hispanic communities, including many in multi-family households concerned about COVID risk. 

The district was the last in the state to lift its mask mandate. Superintendent Matt Monta帽o said he鈥檚 encouraged that enrollment, while still below pre-pandemic figures, has picked up slightly since last year. 

The district鈥檚 pre-K program, with 190 students at three schools, earned a five-star rating from the state education department 鈥� an accomplishment Monta帽o hopes will help recruit new students.

鈥淥nce we get them in our doors,鈥� he said, 鈥渢here’s no reason why they should leave us.鈥�

Thomas Dee, an economist and one of the Stanford co-authors, said that it wasn鈥檛 yet clear if or when the declines would be reversed, or how families might plan their re-entry into local schools. But a clear line connected remote schooling to fewer kids, he argued.

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鈥淯nsurprisingly, parents particularly didn’t want younger children 鈥� kindergarten or elementary-grade kids 鈥� sitting in front of a computer all day,鈥� Dee said. 鈥淲e’ve seen that in the enrollment declines, and what it implies is that some kids were missing out on those early developmental experiences, educational experiences we know can be really critical and have lifelong implications for them.鈥�

According to the study, as a working paper through the National Bureau of Economic Research, kindergarten enrollment fell by 3-4 percent in districts that opted for all-virtual instruction last fall. Elementary school enrollment fell by about 1 percent, while middle and high school enrollment was mostly unchanged.

To reach those conclusions, the research team painstakingly assembled data on student enrollment, as well as grade-level enrollment, from state departments of education, comparing 2020-21 figures with those of the preceding four school years. They also relied on data from Burbio.com, which tracks how school districts are offering instruction during the pandemic. The authors ultimately assembled a sample of 875 districts serving over one-third of all American K-12 students. While about half of those districts opened the 2020-21 school year in remote-only instruction, the other half was divided between those holding in-person classes and those using a hybrid model.

All told, they found that offering all-remote classes led to an enrollment drop of 1.1 percentage points, or roughly 300,000 students. Notably, the scale of disenrollment resulting from all-remote school was greater in demographically identifiable areas, such as rural districts and those serving more Hispanic students. The effects were almost twice as large in districts with lower concentrations of African American students, a phenomenon that could reflect attitudes previously expressed in public polling: Black parents of school-aged children as white parents to say they favored online classes, according to a survey conducted before the 2020-21 school year began.

The Stanford findings dovetail somewhat with those of other recent publications. A released in September by scholars at the University of Michigan and Boston University also detected evidence of significant enrollment drops in Michigan public schools, with coinciding increases in private school enrollment and the rate of homeschooling. co-authored by Dee and University of Hawaii professor Mark Murphy showed a 4 percent decline among K-12 students in Massachusetts between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 school years, with larger effects in smaller districts and those serving more white families. Finally, national data from the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools points to a huge increase in charter enrollment last year.

Dee described the initial numbers coming out of states and districts as an imperfect tool, but one that currently offers the best guide to how families across the country have reacted to the unprecedented disruptions of COVID-19.

鈥淚 view the enrollment data as a sort of canary in a coal mine: a leading indicator that doesn’t capture the nuance we want in understanding what’s going on with kids, but that has the virtue of being available relatively quickly and comprehensively, representing the whole universe of public schools.鈥�

鈥楥ounts aren鈥檛 rebounding鈥�

While education observers are still getting a sense of how many students left traditional public schools last fall, the first inklings about the current school year are already becoming available. And so far, they don鈥檛 foretell a mass return of students who sat out last year.

by the Los Angeles Unified School District 鈥� the second-largest in the U.S. after New York City 鈥� show about 27,000 fewer students showed up for classes this September than last September. That represents a 6 percent decline in total enrollment, even as schools in L.A. have long since reopened for in-person classes.

Disenrollment has also persisted in Hawaii which has already released . Total kindergarten enrollment on the islands 鈥� which operate as a single, statewide school district 鈥� saw one of the steepest declines in the country during the pandemic, falling from 13,074 in 2019 to 11,103 in 2020. But while some have predicted an early education 鈥溾�� this year as parents finally place their kids in kindergarten, it has so far been absent; kindergarten enrollment is up by about 350, but still remains about 12 percent below the pre-pandemic status quo.

“What we’re seeing is that the fall 2021 counts are not rebounding to what we saw [before the pandemic],鈥� said Mark Murphy, Dee鈥檚 co-author on the Massachusetts paper. 鈥淚 think it’s starting to suggest that what we saw in fall 2020 may occur more commonly in fall 2021 than we originally thought.”

Instead, Murphy noted, the number of first graders has grown 鈥� an indication that families who 鈥渞ed-shirted鈥� their children last year may have opted to place them directly into first grade this September. Meanwhile, the two-year decline between 2019 and 2021 is still substantial in grades two, three, and four.

Murphy did reflect that changing perceptions of the COVID threat may still be influencing the decisions of families. The in late summer resulted in a spike in both cases and hospitalizations in Hawaii, which likely preyed on the minds of concerned parents.

鈥淭here may be some changes in the response to how families are thinking about enrolling their children given the changing dynamics, and the greater intensity of the Delta variant may impact individuals’ behavior.”

How will this chaotic school year have affected them?

Recent findings from the University of Pennsylvania warn that over the next three decades, our recent COVID-related U.S. school closures, as well as the shift to virtual schooling, could massively impact our national gross domestic product (GDP), putting a huge dent in future workers鈥� earning potential.

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The damage from all that reduced schooling could hurt productivity and shrink the U.S. economy 3.6 percent by 2050, economists say. The results will be even worse for workers鈥� personal earnings.

The new estimates come from the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model, an initiative that examines public policy through an economic lens. The suggests an expensive remedy: extend the school year.

Adding just one month of summer school, they say, won鈥檛 be cheap: about $75 billion, likely financed through the federal government taking on more debt. But they note that the $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill passed in March provides to K-12 public education, with about $22 billion already earmarked for summer school, extended school days, an extended school year, after-school programs and 鈥渙ther enrichment.鈥�

Spending billions on extending the school year, the economists say, could help mitigate learning losses, shrinking GDP loss about half a percentage point, from 3.6 to 3.1 percent. That smaller GDP reduction would produce a gain of $1.2 trillion over the next three decades, equal to about $16 for every dollar spent on more summer school.

That affordance 鈥済ives the kids a few extra hours for them that they wouldn鈥檛 have gotten otherwise,鈥� said Penn鈥檚 , the brief鈥檚 lead author. 鈥淲e include that in their productivity, in their learning capacity. And then, once they come to adulthood, that gets incorporated in their ability in the labor market 鈥� that is, the wages they were going to make.

Her team estimated the relative effectiveness of virtual versus in-person schooling using previous studies that looked at the math skills of students enrolled in the different learning modes.

They also estimated how much a year of learning loss corresponds to later productivity. Looking broadly at and federal , they estimated that graduates鈥� future labor income shrank by 10 percent for those who missed a year of middle school or high school. For those who missed a year of elementary school, it was even worse, 13 percent.

Recently approved federal aid could actually make the Penn prescription happen, in at least a few places. The American Rescue Plan includes for K-12 schools with high levels of low-income students. Districts must spend at least 20 percent addressing learning loss. States, which can hold on to 10 percent of the money the federal government gives, must also spend at least 5 percent of it on learning loss, and at least 1 percent on summer learning.

Thomas Dee, an economist and Professor at Stanford University, said he鈥檚 glad researchers are conducting analyses like this, but said the Penn analysis 鈥渟eems to embed the assumption that an extension to the school year will have the same effects as a school does on average.鈥� That may not be a valid assumption, he said.

Dee said the framing of the policy choices 鈥渟eems to preclude other options鈥� like tutoring and conventional summer learning programs. Extending the school year could also be difficult, since it requires schools to restructure curricula and figure out staffing, among other challenges. And it ignores well-researched summer and tutoring programs that are proven to support students, he said.

Dee and two colleagues last year looked at a long-established that serves low-income middle school students 鈥渁nd features unusual academic breadth,鈥� as well as a social emotional curriculum. The researchers found that participating in the program led to fewer unexcused absences, lower chronic absenteeism and suspensions, and a modest gain in reading scores.

Acosta, the lead author of the Penn analysis, said the 鈥渨hat-if鈥� of extending summer school presented an interesting exercise. Normally, economists would ask what happened if a group of students got more education. 鈥淚n this case, because of the whole COVID environment, it鈥檚 the opposite,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e want to know what happens if you give up one year of your education.鈥�

Acosta鈥檚 team tweaked the formula to account for the benefits of virtual schooling, which were enjoyed more by some students than for others. Then they 鈥渇ast-forwarded鈥� nearly 30 years and compared projected wages to what could have been.

鈥淧eople are making less money 鈥� that means that they are less productive,鈥� Acosta said. 鈥淎nd in an aggregate model, where we want to see what happens to the full economy, it鈥檚 as if we said, 鈥榃ell, you didn鈥檛 have enough education. You don鈥檛 know how to perform some of the tasks, or something was disturbed in your learning process.鈥欌��

The team actually proposed a series of interventions, from extending both the 2021-22 school year and the 2022-23 school year, just extending the 2021-22 school year, or narrowly targeting the aid to offer a longer school year just to 鈥渆conomically disadvantaged鈥� students nationwide. That more focused aid would reduce the cost to $25.6 billion, though the benefit would be slightly smaller.

But it could benefit individual students powerfully: The economists project that today鈥檚 low-income middle- or high school students could earn, on average, 8.2 percent less in 2050 because of the closure. Today鈥檚 low-income elementary school students could earn 10.9 percent less.

Though the results are surprising, Acosta said, she hasn鈥檛 had any peers in academia challenge the figures so far 鈥渂ecause they鈥檝e been fairly in line with what the literature has said鈥� about education, productivity, and the experiences of students the past year during the pandemic. 鈥淚t鈥檚 an entire generation that lost almost a full school year.鈥�